Home Buyers • January 20, 2025

When Is the Perfect Time To Move?

by Michele Burkheimer

It’s easy to get caught up in the idea of waiting for the perfect moment to make your move – especially in today’s market. Maybe you’re holding out and hoping mortgage rates will drop, or that home prices will fall. But here’s what you need to realize: trying to time the market rarely works. And here’s why.

There is no perfect market.

No matter when you buy, there’s always some benefit and some sort of trade-off – and that’s not a bad thing. That’s just the reality of it. If you’re not sure you buy into that, think back to the last 5 years in housing.

Just a few years ago, mortgage rates hit a historic low. To take advantage of that, a ton of buyers rushed to buy a home and lock in those lower rates. The side effect? With such a big increase in how many buyers were purchasing, the homes on the market were snapped up fast. And since that resulted in so few homes left for sale, bidding wars became the norm and home prices went through the roof. Those buyers got a great rate, but they had other things to contend with.

Now, with higher rates and higher prices, it’s more expensive to buy. You can’t argue that. But at the same time, the number of homes for sale is at the highest point in several years. That means you have more options to choose from and you’ll be less likely to find yourself in a pull-out-all-the-stops bidding war. Again, there are benefits and trade-offs in any market.

So, if you have a reason to move and can afford to do so, you’ve got to take advantage of the trends that work in your favor and lean on a pro to help you navigate the rest. As Bankrate says:

“The complexities of the current conditions mean that, now more than ever, it’s smart to lean on the guidance of an experienced local real estate agent. If you want to enter the housing market in 2025, whether as a buyer or a seller, let a pro lead the way for you.”

While achieving your goals may feel like an uphill battle in today’s complex market, it is doable. But you’ll need the help of a trusted real estate agent and a lender.

Your agent will help you explore creative solutions – like looking into different housing types (like smaller condos), considering homes that need a little elbow grease, or casting a wider net for your search area. And your lender will walk you through different loan options and down payment assistance programs, so you know what you need to do to make the numbers work for you. As Yahoo Finance says:

“Buying a house at a time when both mortgage rates and home prices are favorable is a challenge. You probably shouldn’t try to time the housing market . . . Buy when it makes sense for you personally.”

Bottom Line

There’s no perfect time to move – every market has its pros and cons. The key is knowing how to make the most of the factors working in your favor. If you need to move and can afford to do it, let’s connect so you’ll have the guidance and tools to make it possible.

Home Sellers • January 13, 2025

How Much Home Equity Have You Gained? The Answer Might Surprise You

by Michele Burkheimer

Have you ever stopped to think about how much wealth you’ve built up just from being a homeowner? As home values rise, so does your net worth. And, if you’ve been in your house for a few years (or longer), there’s a good chance you’re sitting on a pile of equity — maybe even more than you realize.

What Is Home Equity?

Home equity is the difference between what your house is worth and what you owe on your mortgage. For example, if your house is worth $500,000 and you still owe $200,000 on your home loan, you have $300,000 in equity. It’s essentially the wealth you’ve built through homeownership. Right now, homeowners across the country are seeing record amounts of equity.

According to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the average homeowner with a mortgage has $319,000 in home equity.

Why Have Homeowners Gained So Much Equity?

The rise in home equity over the years can be credited to two key factors:

1. Significant Home Price Growth

Home prices have climbed dramatically in recent years. In fact, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), over the past five years, home prices nationwide have risen by 57.4% (see map below):

This appreciation means your house is likely worth much more now than when you first bought it.

2. Longer Tenure in Homes

Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows people are staying in their homes for a decade (see graph below):

This increased tenure means homeowners benefit even more from home values growing over time. That’s because the longer someone has lived in their house, the more that home’s value has grown, which directly increases equity.

And if you’re one of those people who’s been in their home for 10 years or more, know this – according to NAR:

“Over the past decade, the typical homeowner has accumulated $201,600 in wealth solely from price appreciation.”

The Benefits of Having Home Equity

What does that mean for you? It means your house might be your biggest financial asset — and it could open up some exciting opportunities for your future. Let’s break it down.

Moving to Your Next Home

Your equity could help you cover the down payment for your next home. In some cases, it might even mean you can buy your next house all cash.

Financing Home Improvements

Thinking about upgrading your kitchen, adding a home office, or tackling other projects? Your equity can provide the funds to make those improvements happen, increasing your home’s value and making it more enjoyable to live in too.

Getting a Business Going

If you’ve been dreaming about starting your own business, your equity could be the kickstart you need. Whether it’s for startup costs, equipment, or marketing, leveraging your home’s value can help bring your entrepreneurial goals to life.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re thinking about selling, upgrading, or simply want to understand your options, your home equity is a powerful resource. If you’re wondering how much equity you’ve built or how you can use it to meet your goals, let’s connect and explore the possibilities.

Home Sellers • January 6, 2025

How Home Equity May Help You Buy Your Next Home in Cash

by Michele Burkheimer

Building equity in your house is one of the biggest financial advantages of homeownership. And right now, homeowners across the country are sitting on record amounts of it.

Here’s a look at how that equity could be a game changer for you, and why it’ll flip your perspective from “Why would I move right now?” to “Why wouldn’t I?”

Home Equity: What Is It?

Home equity is the difference between how much your house is worth and how much you still owe on your mortgage. For example, if your house is valued at $400,000 and you only owe $200,000 on your mortgage, your equity would be $200,000.

Why Equity Is Such a Big Deal for Homeowners Looking To Sell

Recent data from the Census and ATTOM shows how significant today’s home equity really is. In fact, more than two out of three homeowners have either completely paid off their mortgages (shown in green in the chart below) or have at least 50% equity in their homes (shown in blue in the chart below):

And that’s a big deal. Think about it: 2 out of 3 homeowners have at least 50% equity in their homes. To put a more tangible number on it so you can think about what that really means for someone like you, CoreLogic shows the average homeowner has $311,000 worth of equity built up. That kind of net worth can go a long way if you’re trying to make a move.

And that’s part of the reason why the share of all-cash buyers recently reached a new high. According to an annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 26% of buyers were able to buy without a mortgage (see graph below):

Imagine buying your next house in cash. No mortgage. No monthly payment. No interest rate to mess with. If you want to find out how much equity you have to see if that’s an option for you, connect with a real estate agent and ask for a professional equity assessment report (PEAR).

Who knows, you may find out you have enough equity to buy your next place outright– and with today’s mortgage rates, not having to take out a home loan is pretty incredible. Even if you don’t have enough equity to buy in all cash, you may still have enough to make a larger down payment, which has its own benefits too.

Bottom Line

Homeowners have an incredible amount of equity today – and that’s why the share of all-cash buyers is on the rise. To see how much equity you have and talk through how it can help fuel your next move, let’s connect.

Home Sellers • December 17, 2024

Only an Expert Agent Can Give You an Accurate Value of Your Home

by Michele Burkheimer

In today’s digital age, it’s tempting to rely on automated tools for everything — including figuring out how much your house is worth. But be careful. The automated estimates you’re seeing online often miss key details that affect the true market value of your home.

Before you toss a for sale sign in your yard and expect to bring in the number you saw for your house online, you need to understand why these tools generally aren’t spot-on and why working with an expert real estate agent is the best way to get an accurate picture of what your house is really worth.

The Myth: Online Home Value Estimates Are Accurate

Online home valuation tools give you an approximate value for your house based on the data that’s publicly available for your home. While this can give you a rough starting point, the keyword here is rough. As an article from Ramsey Solutions says:

“Online Home Value Estimators Aren’t 100% Accurate . . . The estimates are only as reliable as the amount of public record data the real estate websites can access. The less data gathered for your particular neighborhood, county and state, the less you can depend on this number.”

The Reality: Online Estimates Miss Key Factors

Here’s the biggest issue with online estimates: they don’t take into account the unique aspects of your home or your local market. And that’s why an agent’s expertise can make such a difference when figuring out what your house is really worth. Here’s an example. A real estate agent will also factor in:

The Home’s Condition: Online tools can’t tell whether your home has been well-maintained or if it needs significant repairs. The condition of your house plays a huge role in its value, and only an in-person walk-through can account for that.
The Latest Neighborhood Trends: Is your neighborhood up-and-coming? Are there new developments or amenities nearby that make your home more desirable? Automated tools often overlook local trends that can significantly affect the value of your home.
Accurate Comparable Sales: While online estimates may use past sales data as a baseline, they don’t always reflect the most recent or most relevant comparable sales, or comps. Real estate agents, on the other hand, have access to up-to-date market data and can give you a much more accurate estimate based on real-time sales in your area.

Agents have a deep understanding of the local market, and they can provide insights that automated tools simply can’t match. As Bankrate explains:

“Online estimation tools determine pricing using algorithms that rely on publicly available information. These algorithms can vary widely from one tool to the next and typically don’t account for a home’s current condition or any upgrades or renovations that are not reflected in public records. So they are not as accurate as in-person methods, like a real estate agent’s comparative market analysis . . .”

Bottom Line

While online home value estimates can be a helpful tool to get a rough idea of what your home is worth, they aren’t foolproof. The true value of your home depends on a range of factors that automated tools just can’t account for.

To get the most accurate estimate, let’s connect. That way you have expert guidance and up-to-date market insights to set the best possible price for your home.

Home Prices • December 11, 2024

What Will It Take for Prices To Come Down?

by Michele Burkheimer

You may be wondering if home prices are going to crash. And believe it or not, some people might even be hoping this happens so they can finally purchase a more affordable home. But experts agree that’s not what’s in the cards – and here’s why.

There are more people who want to buy a home than there are homes available to purchase. That’s what drives prices up.

Let’s break that down and explore why, nationally, home prices aren’t going to be coming down anytime soon.

Prices Depend on Supply and Demand

The housing market works like any other market – when demand is high and supply is low, prices rise.

According to the latest estimates, the U.S. is facing a housing shortfall of several million homes. That means there are far more people looking to buy (demand) than there are homes for sale (supply). That mismatch is the key reason why prices won’t fall at the national level. As David Childers, President of Keeping Current Matters (KCM), puts it:

“The main driving force on pricing is the limited amount of inventory in most markets across the country. That issue is not going to be solved overnight or in the next twelve months.”

How Did We Get Here?

For over 15 years, homebuilders haven’t been building enough homes to keep up with buyer demand. After the 2008 housing crisis, homebuilding slowed significantly, and it’s only recently started to recover (see graph below):

Even with new construction on the rise over the past few years, builders are playing catch-up. And according to AmericanProgress.org, they’re still not even keeping up with today’s demand, let alone making up for years of underbuilding.

And as long as there’s a housing shortage, home prices will remain steady or increase in most areas.

What About Next Year?

The majority of experts agree prices will keep rising next year, but at a much slower, healthier pace (see graph below):

But it’s important to note home prices vary by market. What happens nationally might not reflect exactly what’s happening in your area. If your local market has more inventory available, prices could grow more slowly or even decline slightly. But in areas where inventory remains tight, prices will keep climbing – and that’s what’s happening throughout most of the country. That’s why it’s crucial to work with a local real estate expert who understands your market and can explain what’s going on where you live.

Bottom Line

If you’re wondering what it’ll take for prices to come down, it all goes back to supply and demand. With inventory still limited in most markets, prices are likely to remain steady or rise.

To see what’s happening with home prices where we live, let’s connect. That way you’ll have help understanding our market and making a plan that works for you.

Mortgage Rates • November 27, 2024

Why Today’s Mortgage Debt Isn’t a Sign of a Housing Market Crash

by Michele Burkheimer

One major reason why we’re not heading toward a foreclosure crisis is the high level of equity homeowners have today. Unlike in the last housing bubble, where many homeowners owed more than their homes were worth, today’s homeowners have far more equity than debt.

That’s a big part of the reason why even though mortgage debt is at an all-time high, this isn’t 2008 all over again. As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:

“With the recent house price increases, some people are worried about a new housing bubble – but mortgage debt isn’t a concern . . .”

Today’s homeowners are in a much stronger position than ever before. So, let’s break it down and see why today’s mortgage debt isn’t anything to fear.

More Equity, Less Risk of Foreclosures

According to the St. Louis Fed, total homeowner equity is nearly triple the total mortgage debt today (see graph below):

High equity makes it less likely for homeowners to face foreclosure because they have more options. If someone struggles to make their mortgage payments, they could potentially sell their house and still come out ahead thanks to their built-up equity.

Even if home values were to dip, most homeowners would still have a comfortable cushion of equity. That’s a big contrast to the 2008 crisis, where many homeowners were underwater on their mortgages and had few options to avoid foreclosure.

Delinquency Rates Are Still Near Historic Lows

Another reassuring sign is that, according to the NY Fed, the number of mortgage payments that are more than 90 days late is still near historic lows (see graph below):

This is partly due to a variety of programs designed to help homeowners through temporary hardships. As Marina Walsh, VP of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says:

“. . . servicers are helping at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosures through loan workout options that can mitigate temporary distress.”

So, even if someone falls behind on their payments, there are support systems in place to help them avoid foreclosure.

Low Unemployment Helps Keep the Market Stable

One other important factor is today’s low unemployment rate. More people have stable jobs, which means they’re better able to afford their mortgage payments. As Archana Pradhan, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Low unemployment numbers have helped reduce the overall delinquency rate . . .”

During the last housing crisis, unemployment was much higher, which led to a wave of foreclosures. Today’s unemployment rate is very different (see graph below):

That stability in how many people are employed is one of the reasons the market doesn’t have the same risks as it did the last time.

There’s no need to worry about a wave of distressed sales like the one we saw in 2008. Most homeowners today are employed and have low-interest mortgages they can afford, so they’re able to make their payments. As McBride states:

“The bottom line is there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble.”

Bottom Line

While mortgage debt is high, rest assured the market isn’t on the brink of another crash. Instead, most homeowners are in a strong position. If you have questions or concerns, let’s connect.

Home Sellers • November 18, 2024

Don’t Let These Two Concerns Hold You Back from Selling Your House

by Michele Burkheimer

If you’re debating whether or not you want to sell right now, it might be because you’ve got some unanswered questions, like if moving really makes sense in today’s market. Maybe you’re wondering if it’s even a good idea to move right now. Or you’re stressed because you think you won’t find a house you like.

To put your mind at ease, here’s how to tackle these two concerns head-on.

Is It Even a Good Idea To Move Right Now?

If you own a home already, you may have been holding off because you don’t want to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate on your next house. But your move may be a lot more feasible than you think, and that’s because of your equity.

Equity is the current market value of your home minus what you still owe on your loan. And thanks to the rapid appreciation we saw over the past few years, your equity has gotten a big boost. Just how much are we talking about? See for yourself. As Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Persistent home price growth has continued to fuel home equity gains for existing homeowners who now average about $315,000 in equity and almost $129,000 more than at the onset of the pandemic.”

Here’s why this can be such a game-changer when you sell. You can use that equity to put down a larger amount on your next home, which means financing less at today’s mortgage rate. And in some cases, you may even be able to buy your next home in cash, avoiding mortgage rates altogether.

The bottom line? Your equity could be the key to making your next move possible.

Will I Be Able To Find a Home I Like?

If this is on your mind, it’s probably because you remember just how low the supply of homes for sale got over the past few years. It felt nearly impossible to find a home to buy because there were so few available.

But finding a home in today’s market isn’t as challenging. That’s because the number of homes for sale is growing, giving you more options to choose from. Data from Realtor.com shows just how much inventory has increased – it’s up almost 30% year-over-year (see graph below):

And even though inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels, this is the highest it’s been in quite a while. That means you have more options for your move, but your house should still stand out to buyers at the same time. That’s a sweet spot for you.

It’s important to note, though, that this balance varies by local market. Some places may have more homes for sale than others, so working with a local real estate agent is the best way to see what inventory trends look like in your area.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling, hopefully these concerns haven’t kept you up at night. With this information, you should realize you don’t have to let the what-if’s delay your move anymore.

Let’s connect so you have the data and the local perspective you need to move forward.

Home Prices • June 5, 2023

Oops! Home Prices Didn’t Crash After All

by Michele Burkheimer

During the fourth quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:

Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:

“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:

“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.”

Goldman Sachs:

“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”

The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence

These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.

The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed

However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months.

In a report just released, Goldman Sachs explained:

“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”

Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:

Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.

Bottom Line

When the forecasts of significant home price depreciation were made last fall, they were made with megaphones. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts all broadcasted the news of an eminent crash in prices.

Now, forecasters are saying the worst is over and it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as they originally projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility – some may say duty – to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer.

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